Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
